The Future Is Predictable. Yet Most Investments Aren’t Built for It.
- Mathis Wackernagel
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
1. Start by Expanding the Problem
“If a problem cannot be solved, enlarge it.” This idea, often attributed to President Eisenhower, applies directly to today’s environmental challenges.
Dividing issues into separate categories, climate, biodiversity, water, soil, we unintentionally weaken them. Each on its own appears smaller, less urgent, and easier to postpone.
But these are not separate problems. They are symptoms of one underlying reality: humanity’s resource use exceeds what the planet can regenerate.
Seen this way, the problem becomes more, not less, solvable.
Why? Because it changes the logic of action.
We often assume progress depends on global agreement. So we wait for the next conference, the next consensus…and feel discouraged when it doesn’t come.
But the opposite is true:
The less others prepare for a future of climate disruption and resource constraints, the greater your own risk.
This applies to everyone: individuals, cities, investors, businesses. Delay elsewhere increases risk exposure for everyone, and even more so those who are unprepared.
This reality is rarely stated clearly. But it has a direct implication: Planetary overuse, or overshoot, is not just an environmental issue. It is an investment issue.
Which raises two essential questions:
Are our investments built to succeed in the predictable future?
And how would we know?
2. A Predictable Future: More Stress, Fewer Resources
It may sound surprising, but the future is highly predictable.
We know that people will continue to need food, shelter, and mobility. And we know that meeting these needs will occur under increasing climate disruption and tightening resource constraints.
Why? Because humanity is already in overshoot, using about 70% more than ecosystems can regenerate.
For decades, this has been masked by drawing down natural stocks: soils, forests, groundwater, fisheries, and by relying on fossil fuels which are not only versatile and cheap, but have also an exceptionally high energy returns.
But this cannot continue indefinitely.
The real question is timing: Will this shift matter within the lifespan of current investments?
The answer is increasingly yes.
The impacts of overshoot are accelerating, likely faster than infrastructure and systems can adapt. In that sense, we are already late.
This means today’s investment decisions are being shaped, whether we acknowledge it or not, by a resource-constrained future. And the most constraining resource is the amount our planet’s ecosystems can renew.
3. What Holds Value in a Resource-Constrained World?
If we accept this premise, one question follows: What will hold value as constraints tighten?
If the premise does not resonate, that is equally important, because it suggests that overshoot-informed investing may not yet be relevant for you.
But if you are open to it, consider this: Regenerative capacity, the ability of ecosystems to renew, is the foundation of all economic activity. It underpins food, fiber, energy, and even extraction, which is ultimately limited by ecological impacts.
If this foundation is both essential and overused, then value will shift accordingly. So where should investment flow in such a world?
4. The Global Context: A Double Constraint
Most people already live in this reality.
Research published in Nature Sustainability shows that 72% of the global population lives in countries facing a double constraint:
They consume more than their ecosystems can regenerate, and
They have below-average income.
This second constraint limits their ability to import ecological capacity, especially as global competition intensifies and they are already living under the first constraint.
For these countries, and increasingly for others, the most valuable investments are those that reduce resource dependence. These investments:
meet growing demand,
are less exposed to resource competition, and
avoid escalating scarcity costs.
5. How to Assess Investments
We can evaluate whether an investment reduces or increases overshoot.
There are no guarantees. There never are. But some characteristics matter: Investments are more robust when they:
already have working business models, and
reduce resource demand as they scale.
These are more likely to remain needed, operational, and financially viable.
In contrast, investments that depend on ever-expanding resource inputs will face increasing pressure.
6. Rethinking Investment Value
Traditionally, investment analysis assumed:
stable markets,
reliable resource supply,
and predictable returns.
Environmental and social impacts were treated as secondary, managed through compliance and risk mitigation.
That context is shifting. In a world of overshoot:
Value is increasingly tied to societal usefulness, and
usefulness depends on reducing resource pressure.
This is not about “doing good.” It is about aligning with what remains viable.
Utility drives long-term value, and utility is changing.
There is also a near-term advantage: Markets still underprice these dynamics. Those who act early can access these opportunities faster and at lower cost than those who wait.
7. Where This Leads
If this perspective resonates, the next step is practical: How do we identify investments that reduce overshoot as they grow? That is where the real work begins.
Here are some initial venues for orientation:
Overshoot impact of companies: How one can assess it
Analytical insights such assessments enable